Hurricane experts stick with season forecast

| 05/08/2010

(CNS): Colorado State University researchers are sticking to their earlier hurricane season predictions n of 18 named storms in the Atlantic this year including 10 hurricanes — five of which will be severe. The forecast update released yesterday is based on a much warmer-than-usual Atlantic and a cooling tropical Pacific driven by the climate pattern called La Nina. "It’s really come on quite strong," said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the CSU predictions. "It was a very rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina."

 
Although long term hurricane forecasting comes in for considerable criticism the Colorado team have a relatively good track record and last year, their August prediction came close.
 
They called for 10 named storms, four hurricanes — two of them major storms reaching at least Category 3 strength. The season saw nine named storms, including three hurricanes — two of them major. This is the team’s third prediction for this season. In June the team increased by three storms their April prediction of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
 
Klotzbach said conditions this year most resemble 1998’s abrupt El Nino-to-La Nina shift, when 14 named storms formed, 10 of them hurricanes — three with winds of 111 mph or greater. Conditions also look like 2005 but not as extreme, he said, when 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes formed.
 
The US government is set to update its outlook later today. In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration federal forecasters predicted the Atlantic basin could see as many as 14 hurricanes this year. and a 70 percent chance of 14 to 23 named storms, eight to 14 hurricanes and three to seven major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater
 
So far this year three named storms have developed. Hurricane Alex made landfall June 30 in northern Mexico. Tropical Storm Bonnie forced crews drilling a relief well in the Gulf to evacuate last month. Tropical Storm Colin dissipated earlier this week over the Atlantic.
 
However, forecaster said Colin may come back to life later today or Friday posing a possible threat to Bermuda. Colin briefly grew into a tropical storm and then degenerated into an open wave on Tuesday. Now its remnants are pulling together and forecasters give it a 50% of regaining tropical storm status over the next two days.
 
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Category: Science and Nature

Comments (3)

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  1. Pauly Cicero says:

    No brainer, there’s no downside.

  2. Anonymous says:

    I just hope we don’t get another hurricane for the rest of the leap year. When a disaster strikes, will this government look out for its people?

    • da Bone says:

      Leap year? that was 2008 and the next is 2012,

      and instead of relying on the government make full and proper peparations and then hopefully you will be one less burden on the government in an emergency