No certainty on election eve

| 21/05/2013

alden wb rally.JPG(CNS): Following a weekend when both the political parties and independent candidates were putting on shows of force across the islands with motorcades and rallies, the question of who will be premier on Thursday remains uncertain. Despite his long list of criminal charges and the latest revelations concerning a $1 million transfer to a Caribbean university in connection with an honorary doctorate, McKeeva Bush is still very much a contender for the top job. Even though no one outside of the UDP is willing to work with the former premier, Bush may just squeeze a majority depending on how close the vote is between his and his opponents' candidates in the capital as a result of the split vote.

Although the opposition to the UDP, and Bush in particular, is believed to be running at more than 70 percent of the electorate, that opposition to the former premier is split across several different groups — thePNA, the C4C and other independents, as well as the Progressives — and the UDP could, therefore, still steal the day on Wednesday, returning Bush to the premiership.

With the PPM’s show of force on Monday evening’s motorcade, however, expectations that the PPM can squeeze out the UDP in the capital were raised but it is still too close to call.

The widely popular concept of a coalition remains in question, too, as the independent vote in the major constituencies is also split. With no grass roots collective support for groups such as the PNA or C4C, compared to the party loyalties that carry block votes for both the UDP and PPM candidates, the independent candidates have the biggest hill to climb when it comes to attracting the significant number of votes that will be required to win in the major battlegrounds of West Bay, Bodden Town and George Town.

A parliamentary deadlock is also a definite possibility, with nine PPM candidates and their independent supporters being returned across from nine UDP candidates. If a number of independent candidates are elected then Cayman’s next premier could even end up being an individual who has never served inside the country's parliament before. While the main contenders for Cayman’s third premier remain Alden McLaughlin, Juliana O’Connor-Connolly, McKeeva Bush and Ezzard Miller, should either Jude Scott or Roy McTaggart be returned they may be pushing for the top job as well. 

With no official independent polls and only those financed by parties and the media, the results that have been revealed are varying widely. Although the CNS poll has the PPM commanding 42% of the straight vote, the UDP a mere 7% and the independents and split vote running highest with 47%, by comparison the Cayman 27 poll shows the PPM, the UDP and the split vote neck and neck with just 23%, 22% and 23% respectively.

Vote in the CNS on-line poll: How-will-you-be-voting?

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Category: Politics

Comments (26)

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  1. Anne T; Krist says:

    Good luck Cayman – we'll be watching with interest where you decide to take yourselves!

  2. Anonymous says:

    If Mr. Bush had any sense, he would just sit down now XXXX. Leave it to the young guns of West Bay and see what materialize. Mr. Bush XXX all he is going to do, is to waste more of the tax payers money with a Bi-Election. XXXX  He needs to pull out of the race now, before its too late.  I have seen first hand how intimidating his tactics is and the lies he is telling the voters in West Bay, as there are very few of them that did not received hand outs from him, using the Government's money. They all feel beholden to him and that's how he likes it.  He comes in like one of those socialist leaders and all he has ever done for the West Bayers is to turn them into druggies,unemployed and dependants of the State. The West Bayers are beggers now, you should see them at those political meetings.  It just saddens me to see our people hungry and disenfranchised and its mainly in West Bay and it was all caused by Mr. Bush. Mr. Bush will get in, but mainly due to the Jamaicans and Filipinoes Status holder votes, not the West Bayers, maybe a few friends and family might vote for him, but not the druggies…no siree!

  3. Anonymous says:

    Sympathy Votes – Please!  He is always being attacked…  Let's not kid ourselves.   Mac is getting no such thing.  The votes he will get will come from the "scarce benefits and spoils" bunch.  All the handouts are payments.  It all comes down to what you can do for me.  The electorate that subscribes to that type of politics should be ashamed of themselves.  We have developed such a "crab in a bucket" mentallity that our vision is myopic and our failure to see the bigger picture is killing the Cayman Islands.  When did we adopt this flag waving, loud music playing motorcade, people hanging out of cars as part of our culture?  Can we just get back to the basics and put the good of the entire Cayman Islands on the forefront.  This election don't vote for the "fridge, driveway $50 – $100 giveway" party.  Vote for Integrity, Responsibility and Transparancy.  If we all go to the polls with this thought in mind then the "people's premier" will be a thing of the past.

  4. Anonymous says:

    GT : 2PPM 2INd 2UDP WB 2PPM Mac and 1 IND BT Chuckie Theresa 2PpM … Ezra’s,Arden Moses Juli

    • Anonymous says:

      you are pretty close to my list…I put  a question mark beside Arden however

  5. Anonymous says:

    There is no certainty in ANYTHING. We are not even certain of tomorrow. I know for sure that Almighty God is in control and I know He hasn’t turned His back on us so I’m trusting that His Will be done.

    • Gotcha says:

      His will is always done, even if that's killing children with a tornado.  You'd never know what's "on his mind", so what does that mean anyways?

  6. Anonymous says:

    Cayman, bypass all the top dogs and vote in the minions. This way, they will have to cooperate with each other.

    Remove the alpha dogs.

  7. Apprentice101 says:

    I said this before. From the Cayman27 Poll, it looks like we are going to have a coalition government. I am surprised at PNA's figures and the support they are getting whilst being the current government. PPM and UDP look neck to neck in the race. PNA ratings is way pass C4C's ratings, but combined with the C4C and the INDIAN ratings, they outnumber each of the political parties. However, the rating option of "splitting my votes" leave room for doubt as to who is really on top. But again if this poll is a true reflection, more than likely it appears we will have a coalition government to debate and negotiate national laws, which I believe would be a way better government for the Cayman Islands than mere party-led one like we had the last 8 years.

    • Anonymous says:

      The Cayman27 Poll is not reliable.  It appears to use cookies in an attempt to prevent multiple votes by the same person (rather than recording IP addresses).  It's easy to delete cookies or use different browsers to vote many times.

      • Anonymous says:

        None of you will ever be able to conduct a proper poll. Those polls are so distorted. the reason why, the majority of UDP voters are grass root people, whom do not own or use these electronic devices, they are not computer literate.

        So you all can look to get your asses kick again by the UDP…God is watching.   

  8. Anonymous says:

    Vote for Change this country must do better. McKeeva, Juliana, Alden, Rolston are all a joke and we know what they are about look at the last 8 years

  9. Anonymous says:

    Whatever the other considerations, people must vote to ensure that there is no possibility that bush gets back into power this time and they must vote to ensure that OMOV is passed into law as soon as possible so that bush never gets into power again.

  10. Anonymous says:

    CNS I seriously think your analogy of the what ifs with the election is seriously skewed. Neither party will garner the 10 persons needed to have a clear majority. Both parties MIGHT get 6 candidates each so it goes without saying that the next government will have to be formed with the other 6 elected members whoever they be. Therefore coalition government with the PPM and the other 6. McKeeva and his team will be the opposition!!

  11. Anonymous says:

    those motorcades were an absolute pain and completely unnecessary.

  12. Anonymous says:

    I waiting for the Political Police to come up with the most accurate POLL in the last couple of hours so we can rest for sure who will win tomorrow.Last week Polls look like C4C,PNA and IND will win a majority to form the next government.

  13. bradley says:

    The Cayman27 poll I think is more accurate than the CNS poll. The reasons why I say this is because the site has become a frequently visited place for non-Caymanian commenters. All one has to do is browse some comments affixed to various articles and see the many "Anonymous" and general comments made. But I am just sharing my opinion. We don't know the outcome until after the 22nd of May.

  14. Are you kidding?? Miller?! says:

    That’s the biggest laugh I’ve had in months! There is no way Miller would ever be elected Premier. And thank God for that!!

  15. Anonymous says:

    First order of business:  abolish the office of "premier".

  16. Anonymous says:

    Legislative Assembly behavior can only improve with the election of professional independent candidates.  It was hard enough getting the past lot to even show up on for their handful of LA sessions per year, and that time was squandered on personal attacks and self-indulgant diatribes.  Professional Independents have experience showing up for work, so it can only improve.  

  17. patr... says:

    McKeeva is getting sympathy votes because he is always constantly being attacked. That is why he is getting back in. Truth must be told.