Experts warn of busy season

| 31/05/2013

(CNS): As Cayman sat under a cloud of rainy weather on the eve of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season Friday, meteorological experts were warning of busy season ahead. Some forecasters are pointing to an “extremely active" hurricane season. Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the US have said they expect to see 13 to 20 named storms. This range means the season should be an "above normal and possiblyan extremely active" one, said Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA's acting director. Sullivan said that NOAA expects to see seven to 11 hurricanes, those storms with sustained winds of at least 74 mph, of which six are likely to be major hurricanes category 3 or above with winds of 111 mph or more.

This forecast is well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA. The above-normal season is likely thanks to a "confluence of factors"  that favor cyclone formation, Sullivan said in a release this week.

These include above-average sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean where these storms form. Warm waters fuel cyclones and make them stronger. The El Niño climate pattern is not in effect, which favors Atlantic hurricanes, since El Niño's easterly winds can tear apart developing cyclones.

Hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, though storms can, and have, formed outside of those dates when conditions were favorable.
Cayman can expect heavy rain and cloudy weather for the next five days according to local forecasts and although there is plenty of cloud around the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico but at present there no tropical storms on the horizon.

Local hurricane officials are planning the annual hurricane exercise for Monday, when they will test out their state of readiness. In the meantime, all residents are urged to ensure that they are prepared to face whatever this season throws at Cayman.

See messages from the governor and the premier below

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Category: Science and Nature

Comments (48)

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  1. Anonymous says:

    I do not watch tv for an entertainment. I read cns comments.

  2. Anonymous says:

    I realise this doesn't have anything to do with the weather, but isn't it nice to be able to relax on the weekend without having to check CNS every five minutes to see what craziness the Premier is getting up to?

  3. Anonymous says:

    These trogladytes measquerading as academics justify their existence by prophesying disaster year after year.Let's all make a note of their silly little figures and gather again at the end of the season to see just how wrong they were – again.

    • Anonymous says:

      Don't use fancy words unless you can spell them.  In fact don't use any words other than the really really short ones and even then use spell check.

    • Anonymous says:

      Actually the have been pretty accurate, and if anything under estimating the number of storms per year.

      they are forecasting the tropical storms for the whole Northern Atlantic not Cayman.

      Last season there were 10 storms but we got none in Cayman, in 2011 there 18.

      And as for phrohesying disaster year after year, have you noticed that there has been year after year, remember Sandy last year.

      Typical small island mentality, if it doesn't happen in Cayman then it doesn't happen anywhere

      Too funny

       

    • Way away says:

      Amen
      I though it was just me that is sick of these insurance companies sponsored liars we call hurricane forecasters. Has everyone noticed that insurance rates continue to go up each year despite the massage jump after Ivan to recover costs?
      I foolishly believed that once then had recovered from Ivan that they would have leveled off or even dropped.
      And another thing, now that we have such good to tell us what they are doing on the rare occasion when one does come our way, should we not be less worried?
      Maybe I got it all wrong, maybe I should stay scared shitless every year between June 1 and November 30.

      • Anonymous says:

        You sadly do not understand how these things work & it is not worth trying to explain it to you. You are correct in that prices in Cayman are absurdly high though; but that is the same for everything.

      • Anonymous says:

        As little clue about how insurance works as how to use an apostrophe.

  4. Anonymous says:

    Just live cheap and rent and it does not matter.

  5. Anonymous says:

    Oh Lord please destroy my corrupt  timeshare and wash it out to sea but leave the rest of the island safe.

  6. Anonymous says:

    Put all trust in God and not man

  7. Anonymous says:

    So where is this 3 million dollar radar?
    It was on the cruddy weather.ky site for about a week then it disappeared.
    Hurricane season starts and we still have no radar.

    • Anonymous says:

      Can anyone say what the various Hazard Management staff do year round? Sounds to me like a department that could be disbanded as being not cost effective.

      • Anon says:

        Along with the Petroleum Inspectorate .Two US based companies that adhere to US safety procedures and standards do not need a government department to monitor them.

    • Anonymous says:

      live radar data is a few weeks away.

      The designing company is still not finished with it yet.

    • Anonymous says:

      Did they send their own technicians or was someones uncle in line for the job?  Sorry.  Dumb question.

    • Anonymous says:

      I don't know where the direct link to it is, but you can find it on  Crown Weather:   crownweather.com, under the tropical weather page.

      • Anonymous says:

        It's not live – loop data is from May 19.

      • Anonymous says:

        Still waiting for radar images over Cayman on Crown weather but they cant deliver what they dont have. Granted you can use Cuban radar but we are on the outer edges of the image and if you understand how radar images work you would understand that what they are detecting is 14 miles up.

  8. Bitten Aints says:

    Will If I see 1 million red Shanks  (small red crabs) crawling on the East End road between now and mid July I know something be headed this way big time.   

    • Anonymous says:

      Wrong island; they were all making their way over the Southside road on Cayman Brac on Thursday…

    • michel says:

      Maybe or naybe not. But there has neen an infestation of bugs lately on the Brac which was    v ery unusual and people had to run for cover. That in my opininion could be a sign ? God Bless,Michel.

      • kirsten luke says:

        During the summer before Ivan, the mangos of Grand Cayman were the best I have ever known!  Many of the trees that I ate mangos from, that summer, were destroyed.  

        Good mango crop this year?

      • Anonymous says:

        They can come out now. The election’s over.

  9. Anonymous says:

    Sea surface temps have been warm enough in our area to support a hurricane since mid-May.    Fortunately for us, the Saharan dry air layer has been fairly widespread.   We all know what to do, the question is, will we do it, or become part of the masses who lament their woes when the barge doesn't come?    It's not like it's a surprise.   Do your part for yourself and your neighbors.   If we get a big hit this year, don't expect the money tree to be blooming. 

    • Anonymous says:

      the windshear is still too high this time of year to allow a tropical cyclone to get started, that is far more an important factor than the SAL

  10. Anonymous says:

    This is no longer news.  It is the same prediction every year, because its the only safe one to make.  Hope for the best, expect aand prepare for the worst.

  11. Anonymous says:

    I hopeeverybody realises that Cayman still has done nothing about establishing a proper site for the hurricane committee people to operate from. The experience from Ivan was that the Fire station had a few feet of water in the ground floor and the hundred or so people that were down there, some of whom had been rescued by the firemen from flooded homes, had to be crammed upstairs. It was total chaos. And while we read all the fuss about the new radar, the weather guys still operate from a building built during WWII. Our former Premier, now-Speaker, built a $9M building in Cayman Brac that already had more shelter spaces per person than any district in Grand Cayman and these two crucial needs were ignored. Sad situation.

    • Anonymous says:

      …insufficient certified hurricane shelter for the population, and office buildings will not host squatters as they did during Ivan.  Hopefully majority of residents flee ahead of anything big.

    • :) says:

      What are you saying. Don't just talk because you hate Julianna. It is sad that the former Premier didn't get enough support on the idea of providing proper shelter for the people of the Cayman Islands. I think too much of the criticisms were about government giving funds to churches. But although we didn't need to give the funds to the churches, we could have still received the support to renovate the shelters we have now and/or build new ones in the other districts. We do need proper hurricane shelters above the sea level. I think the shelter on the bluff will be there for some time and will prove a necessity. Juliianna will be remembered for its use no matter how much she is not liked, she will be remembered.

  12. Anonymous says:

    Every year the report is " it will be a busy year" just be ready

  13. Anonymous says:

    Why older men? If you are old enough to remember 32 you shouldn’t be on the hurricane board…. Anyone that went through Ivan should qualify for the board…. Old men and old seamen are just that, old. Let them be they’ve dealt with enough shit

  14. Anonymous says:

    As treasured as ok seamen are and all the experience they have they can not and will not replace modern forecasting, simple fact.

  15. Anonymous says:

    just bring it……

  16. Anonymous says:

    as they do every year

  17. Anonymous says:

    It has been reported that the Boeing-built GOES-13 satellite, NOAA's "eye in the sky" for the US East Coast and Caribbean, is out of commission once again.  With only one orbital spare, GOES-14, remaining.  If there is any malfunction with GOES-14 (and there often are with satellites), there will only be one other weather satellite to cover the entire continental USA, meaning there could be significant gaps in NOAA's forecasting ability when it's needed most this season.  Against this backdrop, perhaps Cayman's new Doppler radar system in East End will prove to be a more invaluable surveillance tool than majority may currently realise.

    • Anonymous says:

      So, our old seamen are just as reliable. Give me them anytime – damned well predicted Ivan accurately. Cease the disrespect towards our seamen.

      • Anonymous says:

        Forgive me, but what do broken GOES satellites and Doppler have to do with Caymanian seamen?  There was no mention of them nor any disrespect communicated in poster's comment?!?

      • Anonymous says:

        I bet you they are nothing like as reliable.

  18. Anonymous says:

    Mostly all of our seamen have good ideas about the weather. Let us utilize their skill, at least that is one thing that we will not have to pay for.

  19. Anonymous says:

    I would like to see some very hurricane experienced older Caymanian men on the hurricane board. There is so much natural weather knowledge that these younger people can learn from them.You are never too learned and big to learn.

    • Anonymous says:

      I think you make a strong case why the committee should welcome being filled with seamen.

  20. Anonymous says:

    All we can do is prepare , the rest is beyond our control so busy or not it’s all the same.

    • Anonymous says:

      anon 1033 I dont totally agree with you.

      Part of your preparation can be carried out months in advance some years and yet there is some that have to be done in short time period.

      For example I take out home insurrance each year so that is a yearly preparation.

      I've build a solid home long term

      I chose a relatively high place for my home long term.

      But what about trimming trees next to your home and stocking food supplies for the storm.

      A lot of this preparation should be carried out by listening to the correct sources for data. Make sure you are listening to your local sources. The weather channel and accuweather give a more wide sweeping commentary. On the other hand your local national weather sevrice has specific local storm surge maps and each year they carry out exercises to improve their system.