Experts accurate with hurricane season forecast

(CNS): There were just eight named storms and only six became hurricanes during what turned out to be a quiet season as predicted by experts in the Atlantic this year. In May, the National Hurricane Centre had called for eight to 13 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to two major hurricanes in its outlook for the season which turned out to be pretty accurate. But despite not even a warning in the Cayman Islands the quiet season still impacted Bermuda which had to weather two storms. Tropical Storm Fay and Hurricane Gonzalo hit the island within a seven day period demonstrating that even in the quietest of seasons there is no room for complacency.

Given that the Eastern Pacific season endured its most active since 1992 it could just as easily be the other way round next year. Louis Uccellini, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service warned that it was not always going to be the case that the region would escape the stormy weather as he urged communities to refine their response plans in the down season.
Scientists from the NHC explained why the season was so quiet in our region.

“A combination of atmospheric conditions acted to suppress the Atlantic hurricane season, including very strong vertical wind shear, combined with increased atmospheric stability, stronger sinking motion and drier air across the tropical Atlantic,” said Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “Also, the West African monsoon was near- to below average, making it more difficult for African easterly waves to develop.”

Despite the low number of storms NOAA scientists said they were still able to use new tools that have the potential to improve hurricane track and intensity forecasts, this season. Among the highlights were both manned and unmanned aircraft missions in Atlantic hurricanes to collect data and evaluate forecast models.