Experts predict quiet Atlantic hurricane season

| 05/04/2012

hurricane_ivan_passing_over_the_cayman_islands_e155165.jpg(CNS): Leading hurricane forecasters from Colorado State University are predicting a quieter season for 2012. The team founded by William Gray are calling for 10 tropical storms, with only four becoming hurricanes and only two of those major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 miles per hour. The team said Wednesday that the outlook for a milder Atlantic season was based on two main factors. Hurricanes thrive on warm water and the tropical Atlantic has cooled this year and the likelihood that an El Nino effect will develop this summer. The forecasters said that the chance of one major hurricane making landfall along the US coastline this coming season is 42 per cent, and 34 per cent for the Caribbean.

Meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and Gray said there was “a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall” in the region.

“We have witnessed cooling of the tropical Atlantic during this past winter, and there is a fairly high likelihood that an El Nino event will develop this summer,” Klotzbach said in a release. “Typically, El Nino is associated with stronger vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic, creating conditions less conducive for storm formation.”

Despite that however he reminded all those living in the Caribbean, especially along coastlines, to exercise all measure of caution throughout the season.” Still, all vulnerable coastal residents should make the same hurricane preparations every year, regardless of how active or inactive the seasonal forecast is. It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season.”

Forecasters have also made some small changes to the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity. The scale divides hurricanes into five categories based on wind speed measured in 5-knot increments. For public advisories, knots are converted to miles per hour and kilometres per hour, rounded to the nearest 5 mph or 5kph. Experts said this created problems when storms neared the threshold dividing the categories as storms could fall into Category 4 when measured by knots and Category 3 when measured in miles or kilometres per hour.

To fix that changes have been made to categories 3 to 5 which will takes effect on 15 May. The new scale is:

Category 1: 74-95 mph (64-82 knots, 119-153 kph)

Category 2: 96-110 mph (83-95 knots, 154-177 kph)

Category 3: 111-129 mph (96-112 knots, 178-208 kph)

Category 4: 130-156 mph (113-136 knots, 209-251 kph)

Category 5: 157 mph or higher (137 knots or higher, 252 kph or higher)

The Atlantic Hurricane season starts on 1 June and lasts until 30 November.

Category: Science and Nature

Comments (13)

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  1. NeoSurvivor says:

    Colorado State's yearly predictions are interesting, particularly for us weather nerds — the fluctuations in the ENSO cycle affect other weather variables.  

    However, I've never seen any reason to change my personal preparation strategy regardless of Dr. Gray's prediction or anyone else's.     Now is the time when we should be checking our shutters, replacing bad hinges, cleaning up yards, roof repairs, stocking up on supplies and the other tasks done in advance of the hurricane season.      Buy a little extra each time you shop, and rotate your stocks.    It doesn't take a tropical cyclone to keep the barge from coming.   

    It is our personal responsibility to prepare and take care of our own.   It's my sense of things that it's a dire mistake to think that government is going to take care of you if we are hit. 

  2. Anonymous says:

    When the experts predict a busy season, it's quite, now they predict a quite one, I hope that does not mean it's going to be busy…

  3. Anonymous says:

    They predicted busy seasons for the past two years and we didn't get a splash!  People, remember: You cannot predict hurricanes – period.

    • Anonymous says:

      Anon 1724 they dont predict for the cayman islands they predict for the Atlantic Basin.

      For your personal use

      2011 april forecast

      16 named storms

      9 hurricanes

      5 major hurricanes

      actually observed

      19 named storms


      4 major hurricanes

      2010 was even more active as predicted

  4. Anonymous says:

    Probably more do do with cloud seeding since Hurricane Katrina.

  5. Anonymous says:

    That's that then, hold on to your coconuts.  It will be busy season. 

  6. Anonymous says:

    One more sign of global cooling.

    Regardless of how many strong signs of global cooling are occurring all over the world, the media continues to trumpet global warming.

    We keep reading that the year 2010 was the hottest year ever.

    Never mind that since the last ice age ended about 10,000 years ago, historic records show a series of climate maximums. To mention a few, the Holocene, Roman,  Medieval and recent maximums.

    Each of these maximums has been lower than the previous, with the recent maximum being the lowest of all.

    The solar system and universe are winning the battle between reality and the junk science of global warming. The facts show that our current 10,000 year warm period is ending, global temperatures are going down, and we can expect chaotic weather during this transition.

    It is not known how many years our new cooling trend will last, or how cool we will get. Some feel down to the mini ice age, others down to a full blown ice age lasting 100,000 years or more.

    Please get prepared.



    • Anonymous says:

      anon 1044 this tells you how you have used a cyclic pattern to try to tear down global warming theory and in so doing you proved how little you know.

    • Anonymous says:

      keep drinking the oil industry kool-aid………. maybe you think smoking is good for you too…..zzzzzzzzz

    • Anonymous says:

      so ignorants of facts mm where to start

       since the last ice age ended about 10,000 years ago, historic records show a series of climate maximums. To mention a few, the Holocene, Roman,  Medieval

      The holocine period was 12000 years ago, so not in the last 10,000 years

      The roman and medival were regional warming occurences, global climate change is GLOBAL, the clue is in the name.

      Now please supply evidence for your global cooling theory? one year of below average storms in the ATLANTIC, amongst record (in recent times obviously) breaking years , nice evidence, lol

      I bet you don't believe in the THEORY of gravity either ROTFLMAO

      Hope you enjoy wearing your thermal underwear to use in Cayman wating for all this cooling hits, {{snigger}}

  7. Anonymous says:

    Order your oversize blue tarps and portable generators now, it’s gonna be a light one.

  8. Anonymous says:

    just bring it…..

  9. Anonymous says:

    When you hear this folks, please be prepared.  Remember IVAN? Ivan was a leap year hurricane too.  This year is also a leap year.  Prepare, Prepare & Prepare, as best you can.