NHC uses new model to predict storm intensity

| 01/06/2012

ivan091504-1515z (264x300).jpg(CNS): All was quiet in the Atlantic Friday morning but with two storms already on the scoreboard for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, people need little reminder of the official start of the season today. According to the hurricane experts those of us living in the hurricane region can expect a slightly quieter time this year, but as everyone knows it only takes one storm to wreak havoc. Officials in the Cayman Islands are urging everyone to ensure they are prepared for whatever this season will throw at us. However, if all goes to plan at the National Hurricane Centre in Miami, we may be better warned about the potential intensity long before it hits.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be using a new computer model this year to better forecast the development of major storms. The model uses satellite data to identify hurricane structure patterns related to "eyewall replacement cycles," which occur when a second eyewall forms around the original and eventually overtakes it.

"Hurricanes usually strengthen and grow gradually over time, but eyewall replacement cycles can cause very sudden changes in size and intensity," says NOAA scientist Jim Kossin.
Hurricane specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Centre explained that "this is an important first step towards understanding how we can use the eyewall cycle to someday improve intensity forecasts."

Hurricane intensity forecasts remain one of the most difficult aspects of hurricane prediction.

Predicting intensity won’t help if people are not prepared for a storm and Cayman officials are urging people to be prepared. As well as plans to protect life and property, stocking up with essential items from batteries to water, government officials also reminded people to keep travel documents safe, make copies of all key documents, including passports, birth certificates, work permits and drivers' licenses, and store them in a separate place from the originals.

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  1. Whoufa Jr. says:

    Hurricanes are merely another heavily guised attempt at ethnic cleansing sent to us by the FCO. Julian Assange might know when they are coming and how strong they will be but the weathermen are just guessing. If you don’t believe me you should watch that video about what they did to the Chagos islanders.

  2. Michel says:

    Hurricane predictions is exacltly what they are. However with many of us that pay attention we are blessed with the knowledge of the weather patterns such as wind direction, location, intended path and most important us paying attention. I thank all the weather sites and Meteorology Office for your important informations as well. let's not forget John Foster.

    Let"s pray that the Good Lord protect us during this hurricane season and we need to make certain we are prepared. God Bless, Michel Lemay

  3. Anonymous says:

    you really  believe he has crystal balls?

  4. Anonymous says:

    It certainly wouldnt be as expensive as paving to put Mr Arlen on Cayman Airways to attend each hurricane meeting in Grand Cayman. Thats a committee that needs to have well experienced men, alot of folks can learn from that man.

  5. Anonymous says:

    Mr Arlen Tatum one of Cayman Brac old sea Captains should be put on the Hurricane Committee. Most folks even from Grand Cayman call him for Hurricane predictions anyway as he is so accurate.