The story of two wise men
Cayman politics has a way of dishing out some interesting developments; like former enemies joining up to form a cabinet once elected, a coup orchestrated by one's own deputy to name a few. But the situation relating to the existing representatives in East End and North Side must be one of the most intriguing, at least in terms of political strategy and this country's democracy.
So we all starting on the same page: it's now official that neither representative will face any meaningful opposition from any of the main political groupings. That's either some very brilliant political maneuvering by both gentlemen or a complete mis-cue by the UDP, PPM and C4C ( sorry C4C but we will keep you in that basket for now until you start showing us your 'advocacy group' qualities).
Ezzard and Arden may not even have to spend half of the CI$35,000 allowed by the elections law because they already knew six months before the general elections that they would most likely get a free ride to the LA.
The UDP made its intention to support John Mclean Jr in East End sometime in 2011, but even with UDP support, he will not likely be an effective opponent for Mr Arden Mclean. Of course we are used to the UDP declaring one thing and doing another, or prematurely uttering things that bear no resemblance to reality.
The PPM's political strategy, however, is the one that deserves further inspection. After declaring that they would field a full slate of candidates, the country's main opposition group is now saying essentially that they will 'work' with the two wise men.
But if Alden thinks that it will be easy forming a partnership with the two independents to secure the numbers to sit at McKeeva's old desk, he should reconsider. There is very little chance that Ezzard or Arden will be comfortable in a cabinet (which they will most certainly negotiate as part of a coalition) with Alden Mclaughlin as leader.
In fact it is more likely (and blatantly obvious to some) that the wise men are angling for one of them to lead any form of coalition the morning after the general elections. So if some of us are hoping that the PPM will be successful in making a change in government, we may be setting ourselves up to be let down by the Progressives yet again.
The strategy on the part of the eastern independents makes a lot of sense: there is every likelihood that neither party will secure enough seats outright to form a government, so why not hang out on the side with two secure seats and hopefully find one or two others to join them, making the third group an extremely powerful bargaining tool after all the votes are in?
The problem for the PPM and the issue faced by voters is that it appears that Mr Miller and Mr Mclean have policy positions that are different to that of the Progressives. The two independents, for example, are far more apprehensive towards the ForCayman Alliance and other initiatives than the PPM has ever expressed (to the extent that it has … because, to be honest, it has been very quiet on most key policy matters).
So how will Alden deal with that issue with us the people? Is he saying that once the people elects his party on the basis of his current 'maybe, maybe not' approach to policy, that he will then bring on board the Miller/Mclean duo, who not only will push for a major shift in what he has promised to the people, but who will certainly demand senior positions in his cabinet?
Alden needs to make it clear to voters how he intends to deal with this issue. He is on record regretting that it may have been a mistake to not run candidates in West Bay for the past two terms. Next month he may end up regretting the same with respect to East End and Northside. In terms of political strategy the two wise men seem to hold all the cards at the moment and there is nothing on the horizon to suggest that this will change.
As for us, the people, it's worth considering (and at this stage I won't make judgement either way) how we would feel if, say, Ezzard Miller were the next Cayman Islands Premier or if Mr Arden Mclean becomes roads and infrastructure minister again.
Category: Viewpoint
Ezzard… I have no prolem with the people of NS electing whichever relative they want, that is democracy (?). I will even agree that he sometimes provides some interesting contributions to a debate.
However, before endorsing him for Premier, please ask any Civil Servant orHealthcare worker, what morale in the work environment was like when he was given actual authority and power, as Minister of Health (hint: disaster).
We had a schoolyard bully as Premier, now a narcissitic con-lady, going to another schoolyard bully is no way forward for Cayman.
Slowpoke your pen name really do you justice, under the leadership of D. Ezzard Miller the then portfolio of Health & Social Services saw the very best management and structure todate and not the mess that we have today not to mention the advanced medical hospital and health care system that Caymanians would enjoy today if a bunch of slowpokes like you did not campaign to get rid of Cleveland Clinic in favour of Baptist that is what you call trading gold for copper only in Cayman can you expect this from a bunch of slowpokes! Ezzard must have the patience of Job and the love that God have for sinners to ever wanting to represent an ingrate lot like you when he did so much before to set a good standard in health care and social service only to have all his hard work torn down and replaced by the mess and money pit that we now have in both departments.
I also believe Ezzard and Arden are the key to Caymans liberation from this recession. When the two of them finally get elected and sitting in the house I feel our world will turn for the better. Enforcement of laws will do alot to bring Cayman with jobs, policing, immigration etc. minium wage must go to $10 per hour or price control on rent, food, utilities and my favorite medical insurance. These companies have been stealing from the consumer for far to long.
Although unlikely I see nothing wrong with Mr. Miller becoming Premier. Of all the voices and talking heads I have witnessed during the last four years he has byfar made the most sense. Some of his earlier stances on ex-pats vs. Caymanians were a little right-wing but by and large he could be counted on for intelligent comments. As far as I know, he left the Public Accounts Committee because no one was showing up and by doing so he made a statement of how useless it was to chair a committee when there were no accounts available. He appears also to have some integrity making the rest of them look like yesterday’s cold breakfast by comparison.
Wonder how many ppms will jump ship if ppm doesn’t win majority.
One Man One Vote. Each person vote for only one person. The results would be interesting.
Might not end up with all 6 spots filled. Two votes, why not? Your favorite, and your second favorite. Would even work in single member constituency's. Just your second favorite does not count.
Everybody is an expert -including myself. So I will add my two cents.
The poster seems to be picking on the PPM but I would add that no group – not the PNA, CFC, nor the UDP will find an easy home with Ezzard or Arden. Arden, however, will choose to work with the PPM over the UDP & PNA. Of that I have no doubt. And the PPM will only need Arden to form a Government as I am convinced they will emerge with at least 9 winners if notan outright 10 or 11 of the 15 candidates.
Of the C4C candidates I give Tara Rivers in West Bay an outside chance of winning. In George Town neither Roy, Jude, nor Winston have a chance to win. Thats a fact. Jackie Haynes and Sharon have an outside chance but Sharon would be a bit more favoured. But I do not see her winning a seat. I do not see any other independent GT candidates winning either.
So in esssence GT will be won by the PPM & the UDP. Thats a fact. If the PPM do not win all six in GT they will have at least 5 candidates elected.
In BT the PNA/UDP split has divided the former UDP camp. The issue of the dump – "yes we support it, no we dont, we were thrown under the bus" saga will not help either the UDP or PNA candidates. Again the independents are non players in BT. From where I sit the PPM have a very good chance to win all 4.
In West Bat Mac will be re-elected. Whether he can take Eugene, Bernie and velma with him is doubtful given the state of play with the UDP/PNA split and the entrance of Tara and the PPM candidates. The PPM could steal one seat in West Bay if they work hard there. They were correct to run 4 seats and show strength.
Moses will win in Cayman Brac.
By my count if the above plays out then the PPM will have 10 seats between GT, CB, and BT with possibly 11 if there is a seat is won in WB. But lets say that somehow they end up with only 9 seats, then Arden will, I believe support a PPM Government even if he remains independent. Ezzard will not play a part.
Peace.
PPM 10 Seats – Wishful thinking. Mr. McKeeva and his team will take all 4 from West Bay. PPM will be lucky to get 3 in George Town and 2 in Bodden Town. You can pretty much count on the "charming pirate" Mr. Moses getting back in on Cayman Brac. So if you get 6 for PPM consider that an outstanding showing. I believe that out of the 15 PPM candidates at least 6 will not receive enough votes to get back their $1,000. –
That's my Two Cents from the Sister Islands.
Now that's wishful thinking. No PPM candidate will lose their $1,000.
I noticed that you only spoke of 4 in WB for the UDP. What about those in other districts?
Are you kidding? Bush and his bunch of looses stand no chance of winning all seats in West Bay. Obviously you are not from our district. Voters want him and his dimwits out. Look at his record, examine his conduct and think rationally. Roll back the years and see what he has done other than set a record in air line miles consumed with the least effect. You and I paid for that.! Ray and Dalkeith, I cannot wait until you give us honesty and integrity, something we have not seen since Mr. Benson’s days.
Your 2 cents has to be Jamaican Currency, so that makes it equal to 0.0001905 Cayman cents, that settles the value of your Post. McKeeva is out in West Bay, Tara will whip his 'u know what' as for the rest of the UDP they are a bunch of losers. Ellio died with the CHEC giveaway, Mike is a coward, Wally a joke, Piercy lost when he had a chance in 09, today no Chance. Bodden and Moxam, like Abbot and Castello jokers. Bodden Town not worth a comment they could not not find four so they will be shown the door. So my friend is how the UDP will crumble. No big mac and no fries, execpt at McDonalds.
Mike is NOT a coward! He stands for what is right but has never been one for the childish games and antics that surrounds politics. He gets in, does his work, and serves the people. He doesnt have time for the shaninigans – he's out working for the people.
LOL. Ummm Mike voted for McKeeva to remain in office as Premier AFTER he had been arrested on suspicion of corruption and AFTER he had signed an agreement to ask him to resign. He put McKeeva above the interests of this country. He DID NOT do the right thing. If that is not an untrustworthy coward and don't who is. He is a complete disappointment.
if ezzard became premier…. cayman would be finished in 6 months….. i would recommend caymanians brush up on their rope making skills……..
Why, because Ezzard prefers the rule of Law rather than the corrupt picking and choosing from one day to the next which you rely on to avoid having to pay your helper a living wage and do not have to soil your office with the presence of a born Caymanian?
This would not be such a bad thing freeloaders like you would have to find somewhere else to go. Thatch making was a wonderful CAYMANIAN event that any real Caymanian is not ashamed of and makes no apology to anyone for enough said.
Capital "E" and "C" please. Thank you. And don't let the plane door…
Folks it may turn out like this
Alden, kurt, anthony, ossie and moses win seats
Mac, mike and wally win for udp
Mark and chucki pick up the remiaining seats in bt
cline, rollie and tara pick up the remaining west bay seats
Juju takes the other brac spot
The 2 wise men get their seats
Roy and winston pick up the remaining gt seats.
So the coalition is likely: alden , kurt, anthony, ossie, moses, roy, winston, cline, rollie, juju and tara. Leadership by alden wont fly for wise men so they will end up on the backbench. But IF tara and winston dont win, ezzard and arden may join the coalition under conditions whereby they get cabinet seats and ezzard gets deputy premier
Not too far off anonymous!
Of course they will use their bargaining power thats what everybody does. But ppm should have put somene in east end against arden and also ezzard. These 2 will have a big influence on a coalition govt
That will not be a bad thng.
I disagree. Without Arden the PPM has very little support in EE, but enough that it could have caused the election to swing towards John McLean, Jr. In NS they would have stood no chance against Ezzard.
If John McClean Jnr wants any votes in EE then he better tell us where he spent the $200,00 Dart donation that Bush gave him in 2011 to project manage a number of local community initiatives. I don't see any initiatives and if rumor is correct – the money was um, mis-spent?
God help us if ezzard were to become premier!
i'm not sure even god could help us if ezzard became premier…
No God will help Cayman if Ezzard becomes premier as this would be the end of political handouts and favours to people like you. Sorry but this would be the end of the rope for you and your colleagues.
Ezzard exists and affect our lives but god does not.
Ezzard with any power whatsover would be the end of any hope of foreign capital investment in Cayman for 4 years.
Ezzard with power in Cayman would be a death blow to official political corruption, vote buying, careless spending, the giving away of Cayman’s assets overall Cayman will stand a chance again as now it has gone to hell in a hand basket.
Yes those 2 are gearing up to use leverage..and sadly it may actually work! I don’t have an issue so much with arden as ezzard. Ezzard just worries me a little. He sounds intelligent but also comes up with some stuff that is scary
He does not sound intelligent. He sounds like a hick.
I will take Ezzard any day over W. McKeeva Bush and George W. Bush anyday even when he sounds like a hick he does not act like one.
Ezzard cannot be bought and led for sure this is a scary thing if law and order is to prevail over anarchy and chaois.
ezzard would not take a government position…. it would be too much like hard work….. its much easier to be on the outside offering nothing but glib backward soundbites…..
just look at his failure on the public accounts committee…..when going got tough…ezzard got out
Don’t worry Ezzard’s track record speaks for its self very well does yours?
I believe that 101 is simply trying to introduce friction between The Progressives and the two wise men .I believe that you will fail.
Disagree. The viewpoint is actually saying something that a lot of people have been saying for a while. This outcome is very possible.
I think Ezzard for Premier is what this country needs to bring back the sanity of this country. You all have forgotten very quickly who in the legislative assembly started the ball rolling . A independent member forcing his way to integrity that this house lost. Not the party members. The independent member!! The corruption was rampant, whistleblowers trusted Ezzard not other party members.
Voting day will show how West bayers feel about Bush. I predict it will not happen . West bayers want more then a washing machine or a cell phone. They want a job for them and their children. They are proud people who don't want a handout. They want their life back. God bless you all.
"…Ezzard Miller were the next Cayman Islands Premier…". Thanks alot, another sleepless night for me then!
I can't see Ezzard or Arden selling their souls for a position in government, even the job of Premier, if they have to partner with McKeeva.
My Vote is to Make Ezzard Premier for two years so that he can clean up the mess left by the Bushites. Then he can go sit in in his South East Cornor and be the parliment whip for the next remaining two years.
Like most theses I have seen from 101 this piece proceeds on a doubtful premise – that the Progressives or anyone else for that matter could find candidates which for East End or North Side who would have a chance of beating Arden and Ezzard. The Progressives obviously did the analysis and challenged where they feel they have a chance. No point afterall in spending time and resources on pointless fignts which would only serve to further alienate the men from the east. I fully expect the Progressives to win the government and Alden to lead it. We could do much worse. In fact we have in the past.
I think the probably is this, in the unlikely event that the Progressives do not have sufficient numbers to form the government on May 23rd, it is likely that there will be (non UDP) options available other than the eastern boys and they will simply not have the leverage at the barrel of a gun that they might hope to have. One other thing, are you familiar with the concept of collective responsibility in cabinet? Admittedly the rules of math are different in a UDP government but in a PPM government therules are normal and two would never be a majority of seven!
PPM Victory,
If PPM is able to secure 6 of the 18 seats I would consider it a victory for PPM (knowing that Mr. Alden might be Premier is not an asset to PPM). UDP will not get 10 either (although I do think they will once again sweep West Bay – don't underestimate the influence of Mr. McKeeva).
So that means that either PPM or UDP will need to make deals with the remaining few members from C4C/PNA/Ind (Can't see any of these 3 groups getting anymore than 2 or 3 each elected). You can pretty much count on Mr. Ezzard, Mr. Arden and Miss Juliana getting back their seats, and their records all speak for themselves when it comes to loyalty.
Let the political posturing begin . . and please do not act surprised when you see how things end up – after all we are talking about POLITICIANS.
Running one PPM candidate in West Bay would far more likely have a chance break the stranglehold of Mr. Bush and the UDP on the district than running four candidates..
I do not have the same view like some of you in regard to Mr. Arden Mclean. He is not as popular as some of you is stipulating. If you check his record in the district of East End you would be very surprised. What some of you had heard on the radio is completely different from what is actually happening on the ground.
Come and see for yourself. My prediction is that EE will have a change on May 23.
All that I will say these are interesting times and anything can happen. I rule out no possibilities come 22 May 2013 Cayman will make the right or wrong choice only time will tell. I know one thing for sure either we better get it right Cayman.