Busy season forecast

| 01/06/2011

(CNS):  Premier's message attached There was a small area of low pressure about 200 miles off the coast of Florida moving west-southwestward at around 20 mph when the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season opened this morning. The hurricane centre in Miami was giving the system a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days. Predictors are calling for a stormy season this year because of warm seas with most long term forecasters saying there will be around 12 to 18 named storms with winds of 39mph more. Six to ten of those could become hurricanes with winds of over 74mph and experts says three to six of those could be major hurricanes reaching category 3, 4 or 5 with winds topping 111 mp.

Meanwhile, local weather forecasters were calling for cloudy spells Wednesday with isolated showers over Cayman for the rest of the day as a result of an upper level trough over the northwest Caribbean but aside from a few potential thunderstorms, residents have nothing to worry about yet. However, although last season most of the storms were steered away from the Caribbean this year experts say more systems will likely be forming in the region. 

“In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre said last week.

The first named storm for 2011, when it comes will be Arlene and local experts were warning everyone to ensure their safety and emergency preparations were complete so when they are ready when the first storm watch is issued.

While long term forecasting remains an inexact science being located in the hurricane belt the Cayman Islands is always at risk throughout the season and more so when forecaster are calling for above normal storm numbers.

This season the NHC in Miami plans to stretch its forecasting abilities as it experiments with six- and seven-day track forecasts which if they work will eventually offer people even greater preparation times. Right now the experiments will remain out of the public view until the experts are sure that the information will be helpful but the centre said it was part of its long term goal to provide better

Although the public might be eager for six- and seven-day forecasts, the errors are expected to be too large for them to be useful NHC officials have said.

For more information on hurricane preparedness go to www.caymanprepared.ky

See message from premier on hurricane preparedness below
 

Category: Science and Nature

Comments (2)

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  1. east end says:

    That's how we were educated about hurricanes. My grandmother use to say:

    "June too soon,

    July stand by,

    August, come it must,

    September, remember,

    October, all over…"

    And back then we prepared.  Oh how we more informed and prepared!  The people living here to day don't know anything about a hurricane.  Just the other day, I saw a home built along side the sea, I look at my friend, a fisherman, and he told me right away, "that is one place he's not building his home." The people here are niave. They are too comfortable in well built homes and sorry to say, but many Caymanian parents have not been educating their children of the past lessons and mistakes of life. Homes were not built like they were back then.  The Caymanian had to prepare for the worse!  I recall my grandmother would stock up on can goods, and my grandfather would do stuff like reinforced our chicken cop, the zinc roof, and made sure the house and everything was stable. People had to also rely on each other. You didn't had folk locked up in their homes, blasting A/C twenty four sevens and don't even come out and say "Good Morning, how are you?" People had more instinct and drive to survive. People had a solemn belief in a God. All my life, I have not met a fisherman that does not say there is no God. You have to be out at sea and see the 50 foot waves crashing against your boat. The men back then were fearless and the women were real women that knew how to keep the home and raised children. Mothers were well cherished, well loved by their husbands and children. Neighbors would come into your yard with a hammer and nails and ask you if you needed help with anything. Mangoes in people's yard belonged to everybody and their was a respect for the elderly. Elderly people were not locked away at Pines or some old people's home. They were out and about, gardening, and usually happy being with the grandchildren.

    Ahhhh… those were the days… until we replaced God/family for the god of money/work.

    • Anonymous says:

      Good times…how it used to be in a lot of places before money and material possessions took over.