Experts predict busy storm season for Atlantic

| 07/04/2010

(CNS): Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast team have released their latest predictions for the 2010 Atlantic season and have upped the numbers since their December forecast. William Gray and Phil Klotzbach said that 2010 will be an "above-average" season with 15 named storms and eight of those becoming hurricanes. The latest report was released this morning Wednesday (7 April) when the forecasters said that El Nino conditions will dissipate by summer and that unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will persist, leading to favourable conditions for hurricanes to develop and intensify.

In December the hurricane predictors issued a range rather than a specific number forecasting 11-16 storms but have now settled on the specific figure of 15 at the very top end of the December range for their latest prediction.
Gray and Klotzbach said that they expected 8 of the named storms to become hurricanes with four of those strengthening into major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are considered to be Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Communities along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts now face a 69 percent risk of being buffeted by a major storm this year
Despite the cooler weather this winter in the Caribbean, the famous forecasters said the combination of a weakening El Nino with abnormally strong warming of the tropical Atlantic waters will create a busy season. "We believe that these two features will lead to favourable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification," the team stated in the new report.
Gray, has been forecasting hurricanes for 27 years and the team at Colorado bases its predictions on historical data and researchers say the 2010 season shows similarities to conditions before the 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998 and 2005 active hurricane seasons.
"While patterns may change before the start of hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season," Gray said.
The Forecasters also warned that there is a 58 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean, a 45% chance that one will make landfall on the East Coast of the U.S and a 44% chance that a major hurricane will strike the Gulf Coast from theFlorida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas.
The team will up review the forecast once again as the season starts on 2 June and then in August at the season mid way point.

Category: Science and Nature

Comments (10)

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  1. EastSider says:

    Isn’t it better to pay heed to their predictions than to take it all as hogwash and end up being unprepared.  What about, it’s better to be safe than sorry.  I would rather have supplies and don’t need them than to need them and don’t have them.  No-one can be exact but they go by the current and expected conditions.  It is only a "prediction" and not set in stone.

  2. Anonymous says:

    Storm  Prediction, is this an exact science? I guess not.  The greatest advantage is being prepared but then again this could be worthless or it would be better to listen to the dealer at a Blackjack table. 

    I just hope we don’t dismiss these warnings and face the same consequences as the men and women of old "Noah’s Ark" comes to mind but I know many will say this is just a story, but I am sure historical facts can prove that theory wrong.  I will also remind my fellow humans that Jesus is coming soon.

    • Anonymous says:

      The problem is that historical facts prove that this story is wrong since there is absolutely no evidence of a great flood. Likewise common sense also proves that this story is wrong, there simply is not enough water on the planet to flood the continents! Perhaps it is meant as a parabol.

      Christians have never let facts and common sense get in the way of their beliefs.

      • Said Tanist says:

        It is amazing the % of Christians who believe Jesus will return during their lifetime – 45% is a common figure.  An understanding of probability theory and Christianity obviously have a limited correlation.

         

  3. Anonymous says:

    I still say man can predict as much as they want but GOD is still in control of ALL WEATHER . I wish they would stop pubishing rubbish from these other countries .My great grand father could do a better job at that with out all the tecnology they have. Majority of us still RELY on or FAITHFULL radio station Radio Cayman .

  4. Anonymous says:

    They’ve got as much of a clue about these storms as the bible bashers who predict the end of the worldis coming every time the wind picks up or it rains, due to the influx of foreigners or whatever.

  5. Anonymous says:

    It’s funny that people expect these scientists to be spot on with their seasonal numbers. This is not an exact science. There is uncertainty with any forecast like this. One can only make an assumed prediciton based on current climate and climate trends/ history.

    Instead of yapping about how wrong they have been/ will be, how about just thank them, as these are some of the same scientists that help to keep us a little bit safer ever year by developing/ using tactics to predict hurricanes….and give us advanced warning. Maybe they should just stop all together. That way they wouldn’t recieve any criticism and we can just look up at the sky and hope to predict whats coming like they did back in the 1800’s. Shame on the typical complainers.

  6. whodatis says:

    I predict the sun will set this evening and rise again tomorrow.

    For the past 3 years this very team have gotten it all wrong.

    Tell me – did anyone predict the global record breaking winter just gone?!

    Fall back guys – no one is paying attention to you … I would put more trust in my chances at a Blackjack table.

    :o)

  7. Anonymous says:

    And these guys were dead wrong in some of their previous annual predictions…the fact is that they are basing their best "guess" on about 60 years or so of previous information which in a 4,000,000,000 old planet is almost worthless…lets hope it is not an active season like 2005 or 2004 for that matter.